A New Year & A New Me: “Sh*t Happens”

Well folks it has been one hell of a year. My poker, career, family, and personal life have had plenty of ups and downs. From more bad beats on the river to finally beginning to understand the business side of poker, also keeping a job past 6 months, having losses and additions to the family, and having ups and downs with multiple women in my life. It is with clear perspective I can say that 2008 was a mediocre year. I garnered more debt, but in that I have learned new responsibility and will prosper from the mistake. I take everything that happened in 2008 and sum it up as a fraction of 1/24Th’s. It was one real down year for me out of my 24 that I have been on this earth. Some people have multiple years of failure, bad luck, or just terrible things that happen to them. The worse thing that happened to me personally was my car getting impounded the week of Thanksgiving. I mean if $945 can affect my sanity like that, then what does that say about me. At the time it was hard because it is my one lively hood that enables me to go and come from work, so it was a major issue, but maybe not to the extinct that originally took it. That is why in 2009 I have set goals to achieve with the overall mindset of “shit happens”. If we always let those unforeseen curve balls throw us off track then how can we ever be successful? How can we ever truly achieve greatness if we don't use setbacks as a way of motivation to push through and break the walls down? In my blog pages so far I haven’t included a lot of my poker play and or pondering hands. What I have included have just been introductory pages into the person I am as I continue to develop my skills and hone my talents as a poker player. In 2009, you will see me delve more deeply into strategy for online Multi Table Tournaments and cash games, also live cash games, the influence from other poker friends and players in the online poker community, and key hands from tournaments that I will play in. As well as a host of other poker related material. This year will be my year and my time for me to break into the mainstream. Poker will no longer just be “The Evil Monkey That Lives In My Closet”. It will be……?????

Learning From Others

In poker there is no one way of doing things. If there were then there would only be one poker book in the world, everyone who enjoys poker would read it, and consequently enough no one would make any money because we would all know how to play each situation in the same way. Which would mean the only way to win is completely with luck and no skill. And as poker players luck is an element however not the key. I often find myself discussing poker with my own crew of players that I know and have different approaches on the game. Not to mention read forums regularly to see if there is any new information from other players across the globe. I am able to do this thanks to Pocketfives.com which is a great tool for players who love to discuss poker and follow the online poker scene. From that I have found an article that I found very informative for those who take a methodical approach to the game. It is by Paul "Grapsfan" Herzog a contributing writer for Pocketfives.com. I hope you gain from it as I did, although I do not consider myself very methodical it does give some information that you can learn from.

Making Tough Decisions Easier: By Paul "Grapsfan" Herzog


No Limit Hold’em is a complicated game. The breadth and depth of necessary decisions demanded are as varied as in chess, reversi, bridge or backgammon (which is most like poker in its luck element). Attempt to account for every variable in every decision and you’ll make yourself certifiably insane. The best way to handle difficult situations is to minimize their number. By eliminating as many external variables as possible, you can simplify your game, and your life playing it.

Game theory experts call this “play optimization.” There are moves you can make in a game which are correct, and cannot be exploited by your opponents. Let’s take a look at a common example in No Limit Hold’em tournaments. It is almost always correct to call with the likely-to-be worst hand if you’re getting 2:1 pot odds, since you are rarely much worse than 33% to win as an underdog.

- 75o is 34% against AKs
- A5s is 30% against AQo
- K4o is 28% against QQ

So let’s say you have one of these hands while playing an MTT. You’re in late position with a big stack, and the blinds are fairly short (less than 20 big blinds). You raise your standard 2.5x to 3x the big blind in a steal attempt, and the SB or BB shoves. Now you’re faced with a difficult decision…what’s his shoving range? Has he been tight or loose? How aggressive does he think I am? What does he think my range is, and what impact does that have on his range?

There’s an easy way around this. Your raise has to be enough to give you 2:1 on your money if you’re forced to call a re-raise. Your play is unexploitable pre-flop. You are getting the right price against the tightest shoving range (except your opponent is Allen Kessler).

How much do you bet? We can devise a fairly simple formula to find out. At the start of a hand, there are approximately 2.5 big blinds in the pot (SB + BB + antes). The short-stack in question has “S” big blinds remaining, which will also be part of the overall pot. We are looking for the “N” number of blinds to bet-and-raise.

When your opponent shoves, he’s calling N, and raising the rest of his stack, S – N. In order to get 2:1 on your money, the amount you’re calling off, (S – N), has to be ½ of the rest of the chips in the pot. Solving our equation with freshman algebra now looks like this:

(S – N) = ½ (S + N + 2.5)
2(S – N) = S + N + 2.5
S = 3N + 2.5
3N = S – 2.5
N = 1/3 S - .833

For simplicity’s sake, let’s call it N = 1/3S – 1.

Let’s assign some real numbers to see how accurately this works. The blinds are 150/300 with a 25 ante. Our targeted big blind has 5400 chips after posting the blind. Our equation says we should raise to 1500. If we do so, after our opponent shoves, we will have to call 3900 more. There are 5400 + 1500 + 300 + 150 + 225 = 7575 chips in the pot. Our pot odds are 1.95:1. Pretty close estimation from a simple formula.

Why not just shove? Well, if you’re the small blind and you’re stealing from the big, shoving is fine from a game theory perspective. But, in my experience, most players think you’re stronger if you just put out a raise than shove, so you’re actually losing fold equity by shoving than making the “N” bet.

So, do you make this play every time you have an opponent with the right stack size in the blinds? Personally, I save this play until the antes come in. Otherwise, you’re committing an extra blind with each raise to achieve the same 2:1 ratio. You’re also losing the opportunity to establish a tight image in the first five or six levels of a tournament, if you happen to want that kind of thing.

If your opponent in the big blind has also been known to be a big fan of the stop-and-go flop play, you may also wish to consider either tightening up your range for the “N” bet or just going with a standard raise. If you have a hand which needs a really specific flop to be good (low connectors or one-gappers, for example), you’re committing far too many chips pre-flop, and spewing them off with a flop fold to a stop-and-go.

Poker’s tough enough in the best of times. Developing tips and tricks to optimize what you’re doing can help weather the worst of variance storms. It’s worth the effort to find a way to make the tough decisions easier.